Home loan application hits 12 1/2 year low

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The tax credit for current homeowners was intended to help stabilize prices and bolster the economy, but the housing market remains vulnerable. Sales of both new and previously occupied homes dropped in January, and the Mortgage Bankers Association's index of loan applications recently hit a 12 1/2-year low.

Also, the percentage of current homeowners looking to buy was nearly flat from January to February, according to a poll of 1,500 real estate agents by Campbell Communications and Inside Mortgage Finance.

The Obama administration has pumped billions into the housing market, hoping it will lead the nation out of its economic doldrums. Efforts to modify loans facing foreclosure have largely failed. So, hundreds of thousands of discounted homes will hit the market this year, stressing a market desperate to balance high supply with sluggish demand.

"You've got a really big problem that requires big guns, and the tax credit is just not big enough," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington.

Agents believe the credit's true test will come in the spring, the busiest home-buying season. Concerns about high unemployment could keep buyers on the fence.

"If you don't have a job, you're not going to be able to buy a new house," said Deborah Farmer, owner of StarLight Realty in Tampa, Fla.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5guZ2uxoyv-PmSFsGGANQP8oGSqmAD9E58OA03

1/2 Commercial RE Mortgages Underwater by 2011

....................Nationwide, at least $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt is expected to roll over during the next three years. Warren said that half of commercial real estate mortgages will be underwater by the beginning of 2011. A fifth of residential mortgages are underwater now, she said...................

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The new round of financial pain, which some had anticipated but hoped to avoid, now seems all but certain. "There's been an enormous bubble in commercial real estate, and it has to come down," saidElizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, the watchdog created by Congress to monitor the financial bailout. "There will be significant bankruptcies among developers and significant failures among community banks."

Unlike the largest banks, such as Citigroup and Wachovia, that got into so much trouble early on, the community banks in general fared better in the residential mortgage crisis. But their turn is coming: Not only did community banks issue a higher proportion of commercial loans, but they also have held on to them rather than sell them to other investors.

Nearly 3,000 community banks -- 40 percent of the banking system -- have a high proportion of commercial real estate loans relative to their capital, said Warren, whose committee issued a report on commercial real estate last week. "Every dollar they lose in commercial real estate is a dollar they can't use for small businesses," she said. Individuals -- who saw their home values drop in the residential mortgage crisis -- would not feel that kind of loss, but, Warren said, a large-scale failure would "throw sand into the gears of economic recovery."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/18/AR2010021805904.html?sid=ST2010021806024

41 States have Budget Shortfalls

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The worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making very deep cuts, states continue to face large budget gaps. New shortfalls have opened up in the budgets of at least 41 states for the current fiscal year (FY 2010, which began July 1 in most states). In addition, initial indications are that states will face shortfalls as big as or bigger than they faced this year in the upcoming 2011 fiscal year. States will continue to struggle to find the revenue needed to support critical public services for a number of years.

New gaps in 2010 budgets. An increasing number of states are struggling to keep their 2010

budgets in balance. Because revenues have fallen short of projections, mid-year shortfalls have

opened up in 41 states — some of which have already addressed them — totaling $38 billion or

7 percent of these budgets.

http://www.cbpp.org/files/9-8-08sfp.pdf

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Mortgage loss at GSE's

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Fannie Mae reported a staggering $72 billion net loss for 2009, underscoring the challenges that still face the nation's largest mortgage financier and offering more grim news for taxpayers who may ultimately pick up the bill.

The Washington-based company posted a $15.2 billion fourth-quarter loss and said it asked the U.S. Treasury for another $15.3 billion to stay afloat, bringing its total bailout tab past $76 billion. The quarterly results were an improvement from the year-ago period, when Fannie reported a $25.2 billion loss, but the annual loss surpassed the year-earlier loss of $58.7 billion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703940704575089983572747598.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_business

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