States $3 trillion in Pension Obligation Debt

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..........................Joshua Rauh, an economist at Northwestern University, and Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago, recently recalculated the value of the 50 states’ pension obligations the way the bond markets value debt. They put the number at $5.17 trillion.

After the $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds was subtracted, there was a gap of $3.23 trillion — more than three times the amount the states owe their bondholders.

“When you see that, you recognize that states are in trouble even more than we recognize,” Mr. Rauh said.

With bond payments and pension contributions consuming big chunks of state budgets, Mr. Rauh said, some states were already falling behind on unsecured debts, like bills from vendors. “Those are debts, too,” he said.................

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/business/economy/30states.html?bl

41 States have Budget Shortfalls

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The worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making very deep cuts, states continue to face large budget gaps. New shortfalls have opened up in the budgets of at least 41 states for the current fiscal year (FY 2010, which began July 1 in most states). In addition, initial indications are that states will face shortfalls as big as or bigger than they faced this year in the upcoming 2011 fiscal year. States will continue to struggle to find the revenue needed to support critical public services for a number of years.

New gaps in 2010 budgets. An increasing number of states are struggling to keep their 2010

budgets in balance. Because revenues have fallen short of projections, mid-year shortfalls have

opened up in 41 states — some of which have already addressed them — totaling $38 billion or

7 percent of these budgets.

http://www.cbpp.org/files/9-8-08sfp.pdf

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Oregon Tax Revenue Down Year over Year

State tax revenue 2nd quarter year over year.

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2nd Quarter y/y State Tax Revenue

State	Total 2009 tax revenue (in dollars)	Change in total taxes from 2008	Change in sales taxes from 2008	Change in individual income taxes from 2008
U.S. Total	199,725,107	-17%	-9%	-27%
Alabama	2,130,092	-13%	-10%	-24%
Alaska	596,754	-87%	N/A	N/A
Arizona	2,562,395	-27%	-27%	-44%
Arkansas	2,103,330	-5%	-8%	-13%
California	33,544,129	-14%	-10%	-33%
Colorado	2,333,248	-24%	-14%	-30%
Connecticut	3,618,740	-20%	-9%	-27%
Delaware	773,047	-25%	N/A	-36%
Florida	8,228,366	-12%	-13%	N/A
Georgia	4,178,469	-17%	-11%	-19%
Hawaii	1,145,002	-16%	-8%	-34%
Idaho	922,192	-21%	-14%	-29%
Illinois	7,697,097	-12%	-10%	-24%
Indiana	4,106,673	-10%	-5%	-18%
Iowa	1,827,461	-9%	6%	-16%
Kansas	1,911,819	-15%	-2%	-17%
Kentucky	2,555,914	-8%	-3%	-17%
Louisiana	2,613,195	-18%	-11%	-16%
Maine	1,151,649	-15%	-7%	-27%
Maryland	4,896,343	-17%	-9%	-27%
Massachusetts	5,420,143	-19%	-9%	-27%
Michigan	5,768,785	-7%	12%	-23%
Minnesota	5,009,478	-13%	-5%	-24%
Mississippi	1,831,891	-9%	-8%	-10%
Missouri	2,752,244	-17%	-9%	-25%
Montana	729,607	-18%	N/A	-22%
Nebraska	1,063,323	-13%	-9%	-15%
Nevada	2,367,012	-6%	-18%	N/A
New Hampshire	484,865	-10%	N/A	-31%
New Jersey	9,359,609	-15%	-9%	-27%
New Mexico	1,077,605	-31%	-15%	-59%
New York	14,079,442	-22%	-9%	-31%
North Carolina	5,380,022	-22%	-8%	-36%
North Dakota	612,734	-16%	-4%	12%
Ohio	6,822,340	-15%	-9%	-25%
Oklahoma	1,902,249	-22%	-5%	-18%
Oregon	2,025,638	-27%	N/A	-30%
Pennsylvania	7,904,008	-13%	-8%	-20%
Rhode Island	771,955	-9%	-6%	-17%
South Carolina	2,261,527	-21%	-14%	-29%
South Dakota	279,699	-1%	15%	N/A
Tennessee	3,097,435	-11%	-10%	-26%
Texas	12,293,040	-12%	-6%	N/A
Utah	1,600,094	-16%	-9%	-27%
Vermont	1,209,578	2%	-6%	-29%
Virginia	4,748,221	-15%	-10%	-20%
Washington	3,996,157	-8%	-9%	N/A
West Virginia	1,273,875	-4%	-2%	2%
Wisconsin	3,904,648	-24%	-34%	-32%
Wyoming	801,968	-5%	-13%	N/A
Washington D.C.	1,369,161	-5%	-9%	-25%

Source: Census Bureau

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