Thursday, March 4, 2010

Commercial Real Estate delinquent balance up 326%

let us take a look
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In January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by another $4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only $10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009), and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. The distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 25th straight month – up by $7.42 billion (28%) from the previous month and over $27.95 billion (508%) in the past year (up from only $5.51 billion in January 2009). This included a substantial jump in 90+-day delinquency in January 2010.

Overall, the total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the January 2010 remittance was $797.3 billion, up slightly from $797.18 billion in December 2009 (affected by
some servicer and trustee reporting delays). Both the delinquent unpaid balance and delinquency percentage over the trailing twelve months are shown in Charts 1 and 2, clearly
trending upward. The resultant delinquency ratio for January 2010 of 5.76% (up from the 5.22% reported one month prior) is over four times the 1.281% reported one-year prior in
January 2009 and 20 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.283% from June 2007. The increase in both delinquent unpaid balance and ratio over this time horizon reflects a steady increase from historic lows in mid-2007.

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